By Theresa Hitchens

China and Russia continue to rapidly “mature” their counterspace capabilities, but they also have been modernizing their own space systems at a breathtaking pace since 2019 — in some part to reduce their reliance on US and other foreign providers, according to a new Defense Intelligence Agency analysis.

“It’s not just the capability, it’s the fact that … they each have a Space Force,” DIA defense intelligence officer for space and counterspace, John Huth explained in a press briefing today. “And their intent is to make space part of that combined arms effort in any conflict.”

Senior DIA space analyst Kevin Ryder added: “China and Russia value superiority in space and as a result, they’ll seek ways to strengthen their space and counterspace programs and determine better ways to integrate them within their respective militaries,” added

The report says that between 2019 and 2021 “the combined operational space fleets of China and Russia” have grown by approximately 70 per cent, following a 200 per cent increase between 2015 and 2019 across “nearly all major space categories.”

“Since early 2019, competitor space operations have also increased in pace and scope worldwide, China’s and Russia’s counterspace developments continue to mature, global space services proliferate, and orbital congestion has increased,” the report says.

The bottom line, according to DIA is that space “is being increasingly militarized” around the globe, and the threats to US military and commercial space activities continue to grow.

DIA space threat report 2022 number of Sats“The expansion of Chinese and Russian space and counterspace weapons combined with the general rise of other foreign space capabilities is driving many nations to formalize their space policies to better position themselves to secure the space domain and facilitate their own space services,” the report says.

The report, “2022 Challenges to Security in Space,” is the second unclassified space threat assessment released by DIA, following the original version in 2019. Aimed at the general public, the report combines a review of past developments based on open source information, as well as what might be characterized as informed speculation about future threats.

The second edition continues to focus on China and Russia, but like it’s predecessor also looks briefly at counterspace activities by Iran and North Korea — as well as broader changes in the space environment, such as the proliferation of commercial capabilities and the upwards trend in space debris that could threaten US space assets.

“The second iteration addresses increases in the pace and scope of competitive space operations since early 2019, of which, you are about to hear, have been dramatic,” Huth said.

In particular, the report says, China and Russia are “developing various means to exploit the perceived US reliance on space-based systems and challenge the US position in the space domain. Beijing and Moscow seek to position themselves as leading space powers, intent on creating new global space norms,” the report says. “Through the use of space and counterspace capabilities, they aspire to undercut US global leadership. Iran and North Korea will continue to develop and operate electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to deny or degrade space-based communications and navigation.”