By Sam Varghese
There are more than four months to go until the end of the year, but technology analyst firm Counterpoint Research is already predicting that this year will be the worst for smartphone shipments in a decade.
In a statement, the company said its forecasts were that 2023 would see a drop of 6 per cent in shipments globally, down to 1.15 billion units.
However, Apple could well become the top-selling brand for the first time, Counterpoint said, adding that it was “cautious on 1Q 2024 and see elevated risk of a delayed recovery into 2024”.
Asia was predicted to be one of the main obstacles to growth, with the economic situation in China and also the broader region adding to the factors holding back the market.
Counterpoint’s research director for North America, Jeff Fieldhack said: “There’s been a decoupling between what’s happening in the economy and consumers buying phones. So far this year, it’s been record low upgrades across all carriers.
“But we’re watching 4Q with interest because the iPhone 15 launch is a window for carriers to steal high-value customers. And with that big iPhone 12 installed base up for grabs, promos are going to be aggressive, leaving Apple in a good spot.”
China associate director Ethan Qi added: “Apple is well-positioned as the premium segment continues to gain more share.”
Fieldhack agreed, saying: “It’s the closest Apple’s been to the top spot. We’re talking about a spread that’s literally a few days’ worth of sales.
“Assuming Apple doesn’t run into production problems like it did last year, it’s really a toss-up at this point.”
