Sub-Saharan Africa will experience the world‘s strongest growth in mobile data traffic by 2028, driven mainly by increased adoption of smartphones and massive investments in the rollout of 4G and 5G networks in the region. The forecast is contained in the latest annual Mobility Report of the Swedish company Ericsson, analyzed with regard to Africa by the Ecofin agency.

The accelerated migration of subscribers from second- and third-generation mobile networks (2G and 3G) to newer networks will increase mobile data traffic in sub-Saharan Africa: according to the forecast, the number of 5G subscriptions will reach 140 million in 2028.

The report specifies that data traffic on all mobile networks active in the continent will increase from 1.7 exabytes (1 exabyte equals 1000 billion gigabytes) on average per month in 2022, to 11.4 exabytes per month in 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 37 per cent.

The increase in total data traffic south of the Sahara will also come from the increased adoption rate of smartphones in the region. The number of smartphone users is expected to increase from 410 million in 2022 to 690 million in 2028.

Average monthly mobile data consumption for smartphones is therefore expected to quadruple between 2022 and 2028, from 4.7 to 19 gigabytes (GB), which represents a growth rate of 26 per cent on average per year. This rate is higher than the world average (20%).

The report also reveals that 4G will remain the largest contributor to new subscriptions in the region through 2028. By then, it will account for around 58 per cent of total mobile subscriptions compared to 30 per cent in 2022.

With the number of subscriptions rising from 3 million at the end of last year to 140 million in 2028, 5G is still expected to register the fastest growth rate.

To date, more than ten sub-Saharan African countries have launched commercial 5G networks, with many more countries planning to do so in the coming years, which will increase the share of 5G subscriptions to 13 per cent of total mobile network subscriptions in 2028.

While it remains an important technology in the region due to its compatibility with basic and very affordable mobile phones, the accessibility of its services, and its large subscriber base in rural areas, 2G is expected to see its total subscriber numbers decline continuously over the next few years, to be limited to 29 per cent of the total number of subscriptions in 2028 versus 49 per cent in 2022.

Ericsson also indicates that the total number of 5G subscriptions worldwide is expected to increase from around one billion in 2022 to 4.6 billion by the end of 2028, or more than 50 per cent of all Sub-Saharan Africa mobile subscriptions within this horizon. To date, around 240 commercial 5G networks have been rolled out worldwide. [Da Redazione InfoAfrica]