By Sarah Clark
“Despite significant investment, biometric payment cards continue to struggle with mainstream adoption,” ABI Research concludes in a new market forecast that predicts there could be as few as just 1.27m in circulation by 2029.
“In a conservative scenario, biometric payment card shipments will grow from an initial base of 310,000 units in 2023 to 1.27m by 2029, with a more aggressive outlook projecting 43m units — still far from initial market expectations,” ABI says.
“The reality is that biometric payment cards are not going to become a mass-market solution anytime soon,” says research director at ABI Research Phil Sealy.
“The high cost, combined with manufacturing and enrollment hurdles, means adoption will remain largely restricted to premium banking customers and niche applications. The industry must recalibrate its expectations and rethink forward-looking strategies.”
ABI has identified three primary barriers preventing mass adoption:
Manufacturing complexities: High production costs and low yield rates make large-scale deployment challenging.
Pricing limitations: Biometric cards currently cost US$15 to US$20 per unit, nearly 10 times the price of a standard contactless card.
Enrollment challenges: The lack of a standardized, scalable enrollment process continues to slow down adoption.
“Many ecosystem players have recognized that the payments market is unlikely to deliver the scale they initially envisioned,” Sealy adds. “Despite the shift toward access control and crypto wallets, where biometric security can provide real value, it remains an extremely challenging market.
“This is echoed by the recent news that one of the market pioneers, Zwipe, has filed for bankruptcy.”
“Without any tangible market success over the next 12 to 24 months, further consolidation and/or pulling investment away should be considered a more feasible likelihood.”
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